Poll: Opposition supporters want Gachagua to endorse rival instead of vying
Only 14% of respondents said Gachagua should contest the election himself and become the main opposition candidate if allowed to run.
Photo: Courtesy.
By Robert Mutasi
A significant proportion of Kenyans opposed to President William Ruto’s reelection believe former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua stands the best chance of helping unseat the president by supporting a united opposition candidate rather than contesting the presidency himself, a new survey shows.
According to the survey by Trends and Insights for Africa, 33% of respondents who oppose Ruto’s reelection said the most effective strategy would be for Gachagua to be cleared to run but instead endorse another opposition candidate.
The poll also found that 29% believe Gachagua should support another opposition candidate if he is barred from contesting the 2027 general election due to the outcome of his legal challenge against his impeachment.
Only 14% of respondents said Gachagua should contest the election himself and become the main opposition candidate if allowed to run.
Meanwhile, 5% of those surveyed believe Ruto cannot be defeated under any circumstances, while 19% were undecided on the best strategy for the opposition.
The findings suggest that many opposition supporters favor a united front over multiple candidates, with the survey indicating stronger support for coalition-building than for Gachagua mounting a solo presidential bid.
TIFA noted that opinions remain divided because of uncertainty surrounding the former deputy president’s legal battle challenging his impeachment, which could determine whether he is eligible to contest the next presidential election.
The survey was conducted through face-to-face household interviews with a nationally representative sample of 2,048 respondents drawn from nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mount Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.
Interviews were conducted mainly in Kiswahili and English. TIFA said the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points, although the error margin is larger for regional subsamples.
The findings come as political realignments continue ahead of the 2027 general election, with opposition leaders exploring possible alliances to challenge Ruto.
Gachagua, who leads the Democracy for the Citizens Party, has emerged as a central figure in opposition politics since his impeachment. His eligibility to run in 2027 remains the subject of a legal challenge that is pending in court.
The survey provides an early indication of voter sentiment among those opposed to the president’s reelection, highlighting growing preference for a single opposition candidate backed by key political figures rather than a fragmented contest.
Analysts say opposition unity will be critical if the coalition hopes to mount a serious challenge to Ruto, who continues to enjoy strong support within his United Democratic Alliance base.
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