Majority of Kenyans Express Deep Distrust in IEBC Ahead of 2027 Elections, TIFA Poll Finds
According to the findings, only 15% of Kenyans believe the 2022 General Election was completely free and fair
A new poll by TIFA Research reveals widespread public distrust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), as Kenya looks ahead to the 2027 general elections. The survey, conducted across the country, highlights concerns about electoral integrity, dissatisfaction with past electoral outcomes, and strong public support for thorough reform of the IEBC.
According to the findings, only 15% of Kenyans believe the 2022 General Election was completely free and fair. Nearly half (49%) say it was “only partially” free and fair, while 25% believe it was not free and fair at all. This sentiment is most pronounced among supporters of Azimio la Umoja, with 50% stating that the election was not fair, compared to just 4% of Kenya Kwanza supporters.
“TIFA’s findings underscore a serious crisis of confidence in Kenya’s electoral system,” said Tom Wolf, Lead Researcher at TIFA. “The data show a deep divide along political lines, which reflects lingering mistrust from the 2022 elections.”
The IEBC’s reputation is taking a hit from all sides. While Kenya Kwanza supporters are more likely to rate the commission positively, only 8% of Azimio supporters say the IEBC performed “very well” in 2022. Nationally, a staggering 78% of respondents say that IEBC needs either “major reform” (42%) or “complete overhaul” (36%) before the next election.
This growing sentiment for institutional change coincides with a shift in public preferences on how IEBC commissioners should be appointed. Over 60% of those surveyed believe political parties should play a leading role in the selection process, a significant increase from just 25% in 2016.
“We can no longer afford to have an electoral commission that is viewed as partisan or incompetent,” said Esther Wanjiku, a university student in Nairobi. “People want a process they can believe in.”
Despite the sharp criticisms, the report reveals that some Kenyans still trust the IEBC—particularly those who believe their preferred candidate won the 2022 election. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of those who believe William Ruto won fairly also rate the IEBC’s performance positively.
TIFA’s poll also explored public awareness and opinions on the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report. While 62% of Kenyans had heard of it, opinions remain divided: 36% support its recommendations, 33% oppose them, and the rest remain undecided or unaware.
As the 2027 elections draw nearer, the pressure is mounting for substantive electoral reforms. “The people have spoken,” Wolf added. “The IEBC must rebuild trust through transparency, accountability, and broad-based stakeholder engagement.”
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