Kenya enters October-December rains as Met warns of heavy downpours
According to Muriuki, the two counties could receive the rains during the third or fourth week of October.
Kenya has entered the October-December rainfall season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service forecasting above-average rainfall in several parts of the country. Photo: KDRTV.
By Robert Mutasi
Kenya has entered the October-December rainfall season, with the Kenya Meteorological Service forecasting above-average rainfall in several parts of the country.
The weather agency has also issued county-specific forecasts showing when different regions are expected to receive the first significant rains.
Acting head of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority Edward Muriuki said rainfall had already started in parts of 24 counties, mainly across western Kenya, the Rift Valley and the Coast.
He said the rains would spread to other parts of the country during the coming weeks, with Turkana and Samburu expected to record the onset last.
According to Muriuki, the two counties could receive the rains during the third or fourth week of October.
He advised farmers to consult county meteorological offices because rainfall patterns, intensity and onset dates will differ from one area to another.
“County-specific weekly and monthly forecasts are available from the offices of respective county directors of Meteorological Services,” Muriuki said.
Counties already receiving rain
Western Kenya and the Rift Valley have already recorded rainfall in Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu.
Other counties reporting the onset include Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.
At the Coast, residents in Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi have also started experiencing the rains. Parts of the Tana Delta have recorded rainfall as well.
The Met expects Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo to receive the rains during the first or second week of October.
Central Kenya and parts of eastern Kenya will follow. Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui and Makueni are expected to receive the rains next week or the following week.
Kajiado, Taita Taveta and inland areas of Tana River will also receive the rains within the same period.
Heavy rainfall expected
The Met expects above-average rainfall to improve soil moisture, support land preparation and planting, restore pasture and increase water supplies for livestock.
However, the agency has warned that excessive rainfall could create problems for farmers and communities.
Heavy downpours could cause flooding, waterlogging, crop diseases and interruptions to farming activities. Poor road conditions could also make it difficult for farmers to transport their produce to markets.
The agency expects particularly heavy rainfall in parts of the Coast and northeastern Kenya.
Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera could receive significant amounts of rain. Parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir also face the possibility of heavy rainfall.
Other areas expected to record above-average rainfall include Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru and Isiolo.
The forecast also covers Nyandarua, Nyeri and parts of Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok.
El Niño and IOD influence rains
Muriuki said temperatures would remain above average in most parts of the country during the season.
He said several climate systems would influence the October-December rains, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The Indian Ocean Dipole measures differences in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
The World Meteorological Organisation expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to develop between September and November as El Niño conditions strengthen.
Muriuki cautioned Kenyans against relying on El Niño alone when assessing the expected rainfall.
“Rainfall is influenced by several climate systems, including El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole,” he said.
The rains could continue into January in many parts of central, western and eastern Kenya.
However, the season is expected to end earlier in Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, where the Met expects rainfall to ease during the first or second week of December.
Turkana and Samburu could record poor to fair rainfall despite the generally wetter-than-normal national outlook.
The Met has urged residents in flood-prone areas, particularly those living in low-lying zones and near rivers, to monitor weather updates and prepare for possible flooding, waterlogging and landslides.
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