Survey Reveals Majority of EU Citizens Fear High Likelihood of Armed Conflict with Russia
While concerns were high among all countries, Western European countries measured significantly lower, but still majorities: France at 54 percent and Germany at 51 percent.
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo/Courtesy
By Ruth Sang
A new pan-European survey reveals growing anxiety among Europeans about the prospect of a future military clash between the European Union and Russia. Findings by the polling organisation Cluster 17 and the French geopolitical journal Le Grand Continent show a marked belief among a significant proportion of the EU population that the risk of war has reached alarming levels.
The survey was conducted in late November and comes more than three and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which dramatically reshaped Europe’s security landscape. The conflict remains unresolved, with tensions escalating, and many Europeans fear that the war could at some point spill over Ukraine’s borders.
The polling group questioned 9,553 people across nine EU nations, each participating country contributing a sample of over 1,000 respondents. Citizens from France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland, Portugal, Croatia, Belgium, and the Netherlands took part in the study, making it one of the broadest assessments of public sentiment on the issue in recent months.
Overall, 51 percent of those surveyed said they believe the likelihood of Russia engaging in direct conflict with their country in the coming years is “high” or “very high”. The concerns reflect a deepening sense of vulnerability at a time when European governments are ramping up defence spending and strengthening military cooperation in response to the ongoing crisis.
Perceived risk of war does vary widely across the continent, however. Poland, sharing borders with both Russia and its close ally Belarus, recorded the highest level of concern. An overwhelming 77 percent of Polish respondents said they believed the danger of war was high or very high, underlining the heightened fear felt in those countries that are geographically closest to the conflict.
While concerns were high among all countries, Western European countries measured significantly lower, but still majorities: France at 54 percent and Germany at 51 percent. These figures underscore the widespread unease despite the countries’ physical distance from the frontlines.
The release of the poll comes amid increasingly heated rhetoric from both European and Russian leaders. In late August, France’s army chief, General Fabien Mandon, warned that Russia was preparing for a possible large-scale conflict by the end of the decade. At the same time, on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow was “ready right now” if Europe wanted confrontation. The survey underlines a disturbing fact: as diplomatic efforts falter and hostilities in Ukraine show no sign of easing, a large share of EU citizens now regard war with Russia not as some remote geopolitical possibility, but a tangible and growing threat.
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