Kenya’s Political Rivals Turn Allies: Inside Ruto and Raila’s Surprising Alliance

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With the once bitter rivals-turned-allies seemingly unveiling an unprecedented handshake card, will this newfound alliance signify yet another political surprise?

After the hotly contested 2022 presidential election, Kenya witnessed hardline stances from the two main coalitions, Azimio la Umoja and Kenya Kwanza. At public rallies, former Azimio leader Raila Odinga repeatedly stated that he could not work with President William Ruto and called for an election review, believing his victory was stolen. On the other side, Ruto criticized the opposition for their weekly demonstrations against the rising cost of living, high taxes, corruption, and poor leadership from the current regime.

Azimio’s weekly protests against the government pushed for dialogue, leading to talks between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga. These talks aimed to resolve the stalemate stemming from the high cost of living and disputed presidential election results, beginning on Wednesday, exactly one year after the August 9, 2022 polls.

After maintaining a hardline stance, Ruto appeared to soften Kenya Kwanza’s position ahead of the talks on Monday, August 7, 2023, stating that he was ready to dialogue with the opposition on all issues, provided it did not involve sharing government positions.

The President’s allies set their conditions for dialogue on discussing five key issues: the reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the implementation of the two-thirds gender rule, the entrenchment of the Constituency Development Fund (CDF), the establishment and entrenchment of the office of the Leader of the Opposition, and the embedding of the office of the Prime Cabinet Secretary.

Conversely, Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party insisted on discussing the high cost of living, auditing the 2022 presidential election results, restructuring and reconstituting the IEBC, implementing measures to prevent interference with political parties, addressing outstanding constitutional governance issues, ensuring adequate checks and balances, and addressing the question of boundary delimitation.

Hours later, the Head of State toured Raila’s political stronghold in Homa Bay, where he presided over the second Homa Bay County International Investment Conference—a move seen as cementing and extending his cooperation with the opposition leader. Although the President did not directly mention or reveal details of his meeting with Raila in Uganda, Ruto termed his newfound alliance with the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya leader a “win-win” outcome for both the government and the opposition.

“There is space for all of us in Kenya; we do not win by making others lose. We want a win-win situation in Kenya so that those in opposition do not feel like they lost and are inferior,” said the Head of State. The President stated that he is on a mission to fulfill his post-election pledge of uniting Kenyans through inclusivity, regardless of political affiliation.

While President Ruto toured Raila’s backyard in Nyanza, the Azimio chief met with the Cabinet Secretary for Gender, Culture, the Arts, and Heritage, Aisha Jumwa, at his Capitol Hill office in Nairobi to deliberate on a working formula for achieving the two-thirds gender principle.

“Tunataka hiyo sheria ibadilishwe ili wanawake wawe wanachaguliwa through proportional representation ili wawe sawa na wanaume,” said Raila after the meeting.

The surprising union between President Ruto and Raila comes against the backdrop of the opposition leader’s declaration for the African Union Commission Chairmanship, a move backed by the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition.

One matter that shocked many was Raila Odinga’s interest in the AUC chairmanship, where he was to secure the country’s support before other nations backed him. In what was turning out to be a surprising union, the once bitter rivals-turned-allies seemingly unveiled a ‘handshake’ card in an unprecedented deal presided over by Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni.

As tensions escalated between Raila and Ruto, younger Kenyans were particularly concerned with the proposed tax increases in May 2024. They mobilized online using social media platforms like X, TikTok, and Instagram, circulating calls to action, translating the bill into several local languages, using the AI tool ChatGPT to answer questions about the bill, and leaking the phone numbers of political leaders to allow protesters to spam them with SMS and WhatsApp messages. Peaceful protests began on June 18 in Nairobi, leading to widely condemned arrests. On June 18, the Kenyan Parliament amended the bill, removing some controversial clauses. However, the bill was nonetheless passed the next day, leading to nationwide protests and heavy clashes with security forces. On June 25, protesters stormed the Parliament buildings, leading to clashes with police that resulted in at least 22 deaths and numerous injuries.

Initially emerging as an outcry on social media platforms like TikTok and X (formerly Twitter) after the Financial Bill 2024 was published, the movement grew into physical protests on June 18, 2024, led largely by a predominantly young demographic and human rights activists. The protests spread nationwide on June 20, 2024, as police cracked down on demonstrators.

The 2024 Finance Bill is the first in a series of tax reforms based on a Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) devised and published by the Kenyan government in 2023 through the Ministry of National Treasury and Economic Planning. The MTRS aims to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio in Kenya from 13.5% to at least 20% from 2024 to 2027.

After achieving their primary goal, the Gen Z-led protests have evolved to demand accountability and reform from the government and its various agencies, which protesters argue have become rife with corruption and incompetence, resulting in non-functional government services. After all this effort, Raila and Ruto struck a deal to work together on a broad-based government, which came as a shock to some while others saw it coming. President William Ruto’s Chief of Staff, Felix Koskei, hinted on October 15, 2023, that a handshake between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga was imminent.

Speaking during a Thanksgiving Service at St. Luke ACK Church Ndara Koluoch in Asembo, Siaya County, Koskei stated that it was likely that Ruto and Raila would come to an agreement. Koskei, one of Ruto’s trusted allies, noted that the two had worked together in the past and there was no reason they could not do so now. He remarked that Nyanza and Rift Valley had a millennium-old bond, making it inevitable for the two leaders to unite.

“I do not want to talk much because of my position, but you already understand what I am saying,” the Chief of Staff remarked. To show proof that Ruto was keen to work with Raila, he explained that the president had instructed all government officials to develop every part of the country without discrimination.

“You have seen the President visiting the region and holding a cabinet meeting in Kisumu. It is a sign that the government is getting closer to the region,” he explained.

“I was Raila’s ardent supporter, and I and others came together and supported him, but unfortunately, we never got the presidency,” Ruto remarked while touring Homa Bay County about his relationship with Raila. “I have voted for Baba, and I am calling on him to support me in 2027.”

On Sunday, Raila stated that Ruto’s remarks would not make him abandon Azimio Coalition members, including Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

“This man, we have stood together since the KANU regime; we went ahead together to NDP, we went to NARC, and even to ODM, and we have stood with him twice,” he spoke of Kalonzo.

On Tuesday, August 8, 2023, Raila weighed in on the matter, saying, “We are not interested in a handshake with people whose hands are stained with the blood of innocent Kenyans.”

Raila stated that between him and Kalonzo, one of them would be on the ballot in 2027 to challenge Ruto.

In what turned out to be a surprising union between Ruto and Raila, the once bitter rivals-turned-allies seemingly unveiled a broad-based government, an unprecedented deal presided over by Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni.

With the once bitter rivals-turned-allies seemingly unveiling an unprecedented handshake card, will this newfound alliance signify yet another political surprise?

Report by Jesse Abisheck

Email: abijessyshi@gmail.com

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